Economic research and trade policy analysis
Way forward and policy implications
The war in Ukraine is causing immense human suffering. At the same time it has delivered another major challenge to the global economy already strained by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This series of crises has given rise to a move for reshoring nearshoring and for “friend-shoring” – either making strategically important goods at home or procuring them from allies.
Introduction
The war in Ukraine started one year ago. The human and economic costs are enormous and growing. Through trade particularly in food and some raw materials its effects have spread globally manifested by supply chain disruptions and increased food insecurity. Early assessments of the impact of the war including a WTO Secretariat note (WTO 2022) laid out different scenarios for spill-overs to other regions and identified countries and sectors at heightened risk. After one year of war the WTO Secretariat has reassessed the situation and examined how the multilateral trading system has reacted to the crisis.
Introduction
COVID-19 is a forerunner of more and possibly worse pandemics to come. Scientists have repeatedly warned that without greatly strengthened proactive strategies global health threats will emerge more often spread more rapidly and take more lives. Together with the world’s dwindling biodiversity and climate crisis to which they are inextricably linked infectious disease threats represent the primary international challenge of our times. Recognizing this new reality of a pandemic era is not fearmongering but rather prudent public policy and responsible politics. We must organize ourselves on a whole-of-society basis within nations and rethink how we collaborate internationally to mitigate its profound consequences for livelihoods social cohesion and global order.
Deepening Cooperation on Medical Goods and Services Trade
This chapter examines how improved cooperation in trade and trade-related issues contributes to global health security. Starting from the gaps in cooperation that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic the chapter outlines what is needed to ensure that rules in trade agreements and mechanisms of cooperation beyond trade can support efforts to better respond to the next pandemic.
Preface
COVID-19 (coronavirus) the most severe pandemic in a century tested the ability of the global system of open trade to deliver medical goods and services swiftly to the people who needed them most anywhere in the world. In some respects the trade system met the test; in others it fell short. This report draws lessons from the pandemic experience and suggests concrete ways that trade can be leveraged to strengthen global health security and better prepare collectively for a future crisis.
Overview
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the upsides and downsides of international trade in medical goods and services. Open trade can increase global access to medical services and goods (and to the critical inputs needed to manufacture them) improve quality and reduce costs. Better global access to medical goods and services in turn contributes to global health security which the World Health Organization (WHO) defines as “the activities required both proactive and reactive to minimize the danger and impact of acute public health events that endanger people’s health across geographical regions and international boundaries.” But excessive concentration of production restrictive trade policies supply chain disruptions and regulatory divergence can jeopardize the ability of public health systems to prepare for and respond to pandemics and other health crises—for instance by limiting universal access to essential goods and services.
Acknowledgments
Trade Therapy: Deepening Cooperation to Strengthen Pandemic Defenses is a joint report by the World Bank and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Nadia Rocha and Michele Ruta from the World Bank and Marc Bacchetta and Joscelyn Magdeleine from the WTO are the coordinators of the report. The team members are grateful for the guidance and support of Mona Haddad (Global Director Trade Investment and Competitiveness) and Antonio Nucifora (Practice Manager Trade and Regional Integration Unit) from the World Bank; and Anabel Gonzalez (WTO Deputy Director-General).
Trade Flows in Medical Goods and Services
This chapter has two goals: (a) it looks at the main demand and supply charac‑teristics of markets for medical goods and services and how they shape gains and risks from trade in these products; and (b) it provides stylized facts on trends in international trade in medical goods and services including the functioning of medical supply chains before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Acknowledgements
The updated Study Report on Disruptive Technologies (2022) is the result of the collective effort of the World Customs Organization (WCO) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) Secretariats working closely with the Member Customs administrations private sector representatives and other stakeholders. The Report was prepared by Milena Budimirovic Özlem Soysanlı Vyara Filipova and Lesego Mmolai from the WCO and Emmanuelle Ganne and Sheri Rosenow from the WTO. Research assistance was provided by Zakaria Imessaoudene from the WTO.
Background
Based on the proposal submitted by the WCO Permanent Technical Committee (PTC) delegates the Future of Customs topic was launched at the 207th/208th Sessions of the PTC in March 2015. This came as a result of discussions on the role of the PTC where it was agreed that the Committee would take a more active role in discussing strategic matters and future-oriented topics.
Introduction: “disruptive…” or (just) “emerging” technologies?
When we talk about “disruptive technologies” what exactly do we mean? According to the Cambridge Dictionary a disruptive technology is a new technology that completely changes the way things are done. Even though we cannot be certain which technologies will accomplish this in the future the public has over the past years broadly accepted “disruptive technologies” as a term which refers to blockchain the Internet of Things artificial intelligence virtual reality drones 3D printing and other cutting-edge technologies which are the subject of this Study Report.
Conclusion
The findings from the Study Report and the case studies provided in the Annex reflect a high level of Customs interest and activity in the testing and implementation of three groups of technologies in particular. Over half of the Members that responded to the WCO’s 2021 ACS are already using IoT AI and ML while only two respondents are currently deploying blockchain technology. Information on numerous pilot projects and PoCs shared by the Customs administrations and other stakeholders show the interest in expanding the use of these technologies as well as the confidence in the benefits they will bring to Customs in achieving its objectives and supporting cross-border trade.
Foreword by the WCO Secretary General
Understanding the need to keep abreast of developments in the field of disruptive technologies and to seek to understand the challenges and opportunities they bring to Customs and border management we are presenting an updated version of the Study Report on Disruptive Technologies. In the three years since it was first published it has served as an important source of information. However considering the numerous pilot projects and progress that has been achieved in the meantime we believe the time is right to provide an update to ensure that Members the trading community and other stakeholders are well informed about the latest developments on the ground that can further support implementation of WCO standards such as the Revised Kyoto Convention.