Economic research and trade policy analysis
Commerce des marchandises en volume (en termes réels) en 2009
Le commerce mondial des marchandises en volume (abstraction faite de l’influence des prix et des taux de change) a fléchi de 122 pour cent en 2009 (voir le tableau 2) alors qu’il avait augmenté de 21 pour cent en 2008 et de 41 pour cent en moyenne au cours des dix dernières années. La contraction des échanges a été plus importante que la diminution de 23 pour cent du PIB en 2009 ce qui n’a rien d’étonnant puisque le commerce mondial augmente généralement plus vite que le PIB quand la croissance de la production s’accélère et décroît plus rapidement quand elle se ralentit (voir la figure 8).
Acknowledgements
This report was made possible thanks to the funding of the Swedish Government.
Avant-Propos
Le Rapport sur le commerce mondial 2005 est structuré de la même façon que les années précédentes et contient une analyse d’un certain nombre de questions de politique commerciale essentielles auxquelles est confronté le système commercial international. Son objectif fondamental est de contribuer à mieux faire comprendre les questions de politique commerciale auxquelles les gouvernements sont confrontés. Le thème central de ce rapport annuel est le lien entre les normes et le commerce international. De courts essais ont été préparés sur trois autres thèmes – l’utilisation de l’analyse économique quantitative dans le règlement des différends à l’OMC le commerce international des services de transport aérien et les délocalisations de services.
Panorama general
El objetivo del presente informe es mejorar la comprensión de los efectos del comercio y de la política comercial en la igualdad de género y facilitar a los responsables de la formulación de políticas datos sobre los beneficios que el comercio entraña para las mujeres así como posibles soluciones de política. El informe se sirve de un marco conceptual que muestra los distintos canales de transmisión a través de los cuales el comercio y la política comercial pueden incidir en las mujeres según las tres funciones económicas esenciales que desempeñan en tanto que trabajadoras consumidoras y responsables de la toma de decisiones. Asimismo el informe reúne y analiza nuevos datos1 para mostrar cómo el comercio y la política comercial pueden afectar a los hombres y las mujeres de distinta manera por lo que respecta a los salarios el consumo y el bienestar así como en cuanto a la calidad y la cantidad de empleos a los que pueden acceder. Nuevos análisis empíricos basados en estos datos indican que la expansión del comercio puede impulsar a los países a mejorar los derechos de las mujeres y promover la participación femenina en la economía.
Telecommunications reform in China: Fostering competition through state intervention
As in many developing countries the telecommunications services sector in China has for a long time been monopolized by the state through the Ministry of Post and Telecommunication (MPT). Established in 1949 the MPT is not only the regulator of telecommunications services but also the sole owner and operator. Not surprisingly such monopoly has resulted in the slow growth of the sector. However such slow growth did not cause major problems in the first thirty years following the founding of the People’s Republic of China because there was little mobility among the population thus little need for long-distance communication. During this period the telephone was an exclusive luxury available mostly to the government and the military.
Introduction
The geographical fragmentation of production has created a new trade reality. Often referred to as global value chains or vertical specialization this fragmentation deepens the interdependency of trade relations and has many implications for how we understand trade policy. This book sheds light on the nature of this interdependency and the contribution of trade to national economies. It illustrates the conjunction of technical institutional and political changes that led to the emergence of production and trade networks in East Asia including their impact on trade patterns.
Globalization and informal employment: An empirical assessment
This chapter sheds further light on the linkages between trade reforms integration into the world economy and the size of the informal economy. It presents an empirical analysis based on a new database that regroups information on the incidence of informality and the size of the shadow economy. The chapter aims to clarify the multifaceted nature of the globalization process and its implications for labour markets in developing countries. It starts by describing the main questions that arise from the discussion in the previous chapters. It then provides an overview of the empirical material and the methodology used before presenting the results.
Foreword
There are different ways to analyze the global economy. One is to view it through the lens of growth and structural change in individual economies developed and developing. A second is to use the lens of global value chains (GVCs) the complex network structure of flows of goods services capital and technology across national borders. Both are useful and they are complementary to one another.
Education policies to make globalization more inclusive
The process of globalization has furthered economic growth and development in many cases but concerns have been expressed as to its sustainability from a social point of view. There are indications that in developed countries globalization has increased inequality of labour-market outcomes. While some developing countries have managed to take advantage of the opportunities created by the globalization process others have not. This chapter discusses the role of education and skill policies in helping individuals and societies profit from globalization thereby increasing the social sustainability of the globalization process.
Conclusions
Le système commercial mondial a toujours été façonné par le progrès technologique. Non seulement la technologie est un déterminant des coûts du commerce mais encore elle définit quels produits peuvent faire l’objet d’échanges transfrontières et elle influe sur les profils d’avantage comparatif.
Supply chains in the economics literature
Many unskilled labour-intensive production tasks began to be offshored by advanced country firms to developing countries where low-cost but relatively unskilled labour imparted a comparative advantage essentially in final assembly operations combined with institutions that could absorb firm-specific technological know-how. This profitable international production fragmentation became feasible with the onset of the information and communications technology (ICT) revolution which enabled the coordination of spatially dispersed complex tasks at a relatively low cost. The growth of global supply chains has changed the distribution of incomes across countries. Participation in these supply chains initiated by the successful completion of low value-added manufacturing tasks contributed to industrialisation and high rates of economic growth in several Asian developing economies. The process of catch-up with developed economies is likely to get stronger as many of these countries seek to move up the value chain through their exposure to advanced technologies (made available by the offshoring process) and build up human capital. At the same time the continued exclusion of several developing economies from global supply chains such as those in Africa means that the gap among countries in the developing world could widen. The international fragmentation of production has also affected the distribution of incomes within countries. In advanced economies the direct negative effect of production fragmentation on employment and wages for lowand semi-skilled workers is the primary concern. In developing economies production fragmentation is likely to create jobs for a large pool of unskilled labour. However because a relatively unskilled activity in a developed economy may be a relatively skilled one in a developing economy offshoring may increase the demand for (and returns on) skilled labour among developing economies. These distribution effects both across and within countries are likely to affect trade policy and consequently the evolution of supply chains.
The 2013 WTO accession of Tajikistan: Experience of a landlocked economy in a changing regional economic configuration
Tajikistan was part of the Great Silk Road a system of caravan routes connecting Eurasian countries between the second century BC and the fifteenth century AD. The development of trade throughout Central Asia encouraged the people of this region to adapt to the demands and requirements of consumers thousands of kilometres away both in western Europe and in China. Tajikistan’s principal rationale for seeking WTO membership was to gain access to new markets and secure the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/WTO right of freedom of transit reinserting Tajikistan into trading routes comparable to its location in the historic Great Silk Road system. By becoming a member of the WTO in 2013 Tajikistan is opening up new markets for its goods just as it did several centuries ago. Tajikistan sought WTO membership to sustain domestic reforms. Domestic reforms entailed enactment repeal and/or amendment of approximately one hundred laws and regulations. In the experience of Tajikistan successful negotiating factors included inter alia a technically competent negotiation team support from WTO members strategically defined negotiating objectives accompanied by a strategy for cooperation. Post-accession considerations should be part of an accession strategy. This chapter outlines Tajikistan’s road to the WTO.
L’économie des subventions
Cette section a pour objet d’aider le lecteur à mieux comprendre deux questions jumelles à savoir pourquoi les pouvoirs publics ont recours à des subventions et quels sont les effets des subventions sur le commerce international. Comme c’est souvent le cas dans l’analyse économique le point de départ de ce qui suit est une économie “de référence“ dans laquelle les marchés sont parfaitement compétitifs. Cette approche permet d’obtenir des indications générales sur l’incidence de mesures d’intervention telles que les subventions. Comme on l’explique plus loin dans un marché parfaitement compétitif rien ne peut justifier une subvention. Dans le cadre d’un marché parfait l’introduction d’une subvention ou d’une autre mesure gouvernementale serait inefficace et réduirait le bien-être. Mais si l’on assouplit l’hypothèse du marché parfait il peut y avoir des cas où une mesure telle qu’une subvention accroît le bien-être. Une subvention efficace peut remédier à une défaillance du marché et équilibrer les coûts et les avantages sociaux et privés.
Original Members - WTO accessions from a member’s perspective: Safeguarding the rules-based system
Forms of collective action and balanced commitment through negotiations were the foundation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the structure for its daily work. These remain at the centrepiece of work in the WTO in a system structured on the balance of rights and obligations. GATT contracting parties established the principles of balance and reciprocity trade liberalisation and a system of mediation and dispute settlement for mutual resolution of GATT provisions. From this base expansion of membership pursuant to accession negotiations has required a commitment to accepting GATT/WTO rules resulting from previous negotiations. WTO accession supports applicants’ efforts for economic reform and integration into world markets. This is one of the most important benefits of membership. Although challenging accession negotiations and the implementation of WTO provisions support important economic goals such as sustainable growth the promotion of high-tech industries attraction of foreign direct investment raised living standards and global assertion of national trade interest.
La teoría del comercio y los recursos naturales
En la presente sección se examinan las características fundamentales del comercio de recursos naturales desde una perspectiva teórica. ¿Constituye el comercio un mecanismo eficiente para garantizar el acceso a los recursos naturales? ¿Qué efectos tiene el comercio en los recursos finitos o agotables incluso en condiciones de “acceso libre” en que los recursos naturales son de propiedad y acceso comunes? ¿Tiene el comercio efectos en el medio ambiente? ¿Agrava el comercio los problemas relacionados con la predominancia de los recursos en determinadas economías o los reduce? ¿Y de qué forma afecta el comercio a la volatilidad de los precios de los recursos? A estas preguntas generales se responde analizando las pertinentes publicaciones teóricas sobre los factores determinantes y los efectos del comercio de recursos naturales.