Economic research and trade policy analysis

A remarkable feature of the recent wave of regional trade agreements (RTAs) is the inclusion of a trade in services component in many agreements. At the end of 2006 the WTO counted fifty-four such service accords of which only five predate the conclusion of the Uruguay Round.2 The rising interest in service trade agreements reflects a number of developments. First as tariffs have come down policymakers have turned their attention to other barriers restricting international commerce. Second the growth of world trade in goods and the emergence of international production networks have highlighted the importance of an efficient services infrastructure – whether in telecommunications finance logistics or legal advice. Market openings in services offer the prospect of performance improvements in services and allow goods producers to draw on multinational service networks in organizing their business.

En el presente informe se han abordado cuatro cuestiones fundamentales relacionadas con el comercio de los recursos naturales. La primera es la forma en que las características económicas esenciales de los recursos naturales y el modo en que se comercia con ellos influyen en la estructura del comercio de este tipo de bienes. En segundo lugar se ha examinado en qué medida la ausencia de obstáculos al comercio permite asegurar eficazmente el acceso a los recursos naturales y su viabilidad a largo plazo. La tercera cuestión guarda relación con los incentivos que tienen los gobiernos en la elaboración de su política comercial sobre los sectores de recursos naturales y las consecuencias de esa estructura de incentivos. Por último en el informe se ha analizado cómo afecta la cooperación internacional a la gestión del comercio de recursos naturales con especial atención a la función de la OMC.

Multiproduct firms are the dominant players in international production and trade (Bernard Jensen and Schott 2010; Goldberg et al. 2010a). Moreover these firms are active in alternating their combination of product varieties. In fact Bernard Jensen and Schott (2010) have documented a frequent change in the product mix in the United States (US) where almost 50% of multiproduct firms change their product mix every 5 years. Indeed firms’ adjustment in product scope constitutes one important layer of firm heterogeneity (Nocke and Yeaple 2006).

The increasing importance of global supply chains challenges the way statistics on trade are collected. Statistics on international trade flows are measured in gross terms and hence record the value of intermediate inputs traded along the value chain multiple times. Trade in global supply chains can be measured using firm surveys customs statistics that record trade flows under special schemes of tariff reduction or exemption or the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) classifying goods as being intermediate or final. Because of several limitations associated with these methods however using input-output tables has become the preferred method for measuring trade in global supply chains. They are used to compute the value of imported inputs embodied in goods that are exported. A more complete measure of a country’s participation in global value chains combines foreign value-added in exports (upstream links) with exports that are incorporated in other products and re-exported (downstream links). Estimates of the ratio of valueadded exports to gross exports suggests that the double counting in gross trade flows and hence international production sharing has intensified in recent years especially for fast growing countries undergoing structural transformation. Relying on national inputoutput tables however has its limitations. Combining it with bilateral trade data is difficult because there is no standard international classification the level of sectoral aggregation is often different and their publication is infrequent. On-going efforts from the international statistics community to estimate trade in value-added go beyond the limitations of the input-output approach.

Global value chains (GVCs) have become a dominant feature of today’s global economy. This growing process of international fragmentation of production driven by technological progress cost access to resources and markets and trade policy reforms has challenged our conventional wisdom on how we look at and interpret trade and in particular the policies that we develop around it. Indeed traditional measures of trade that record gross flows of goods and services each and every time they cross borders alone may lead to misguided decisions being taken.

The global economy is going through unprecedented times. The COVID-19 pandemic has shaken the world threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in both developed and developing economies with a particularly devastating impact on small businesses. World trade plummeted in the first half the year and despite signs of trade bouncing back WTO estimates in October 2020 still forecast a 9.2 per cent decline in the volume of world merchandise trade for 2020.

La présente section examine comment les nouvelles technologies transforment le commerce international créant de nouvelles possibilités d’établir un système commercial plus inclusif et soulevant de nouveaux défis. Elle analyse d’abord l’influence des technologies numériques sur les coûts du commerce international. Puis elle examine comment ces technologies modifient ce qui est échangé par qui et comment. Enfin l’impact potentiel des grandes tendances de l’évolution technologique est quantifié et des projections à long terme concernant le commerce international sont faites au moyen du Modèle du commerce mondial de l’OMC.