WTO Working Papers

Some countries have voiced unease about differences between their own tariff rates and those of major trading partners, calling for more ”reciprocity”. These calls raise the question how large the negative spillover effects of countries’ tariffs on others have become over time.

The WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) has been predicted to bring about an expansion in trade flows and real income gains. To date, there is still very limited empirical evidence on the actual post-implementation impact of the TFA. This paper provides an assessment, combining econometric estimations from a structural gravity model with general equilibrium modelling results.

In this study, we investigate three trade policy scenarios: i) the revival of multilateralism, ii) plurilateral cooperation, and iii) geopolitical rivalry. In the first scenario, both tariffs and NTMs are reduced on a multilateral basis. In the second scenario, varying groups of countries cooperate on specific topics, such as E-commerce and services. In the last scenario, two main blocks emerge: a Western block and an Eastern block. I Read More

The scheduling approach constitutes a key element of services trade agreements as it is the means to pursue liberalization. This paper provides an overview of the scheduling approaches adopted in 187 trade agreements notified under GATS Article V as of 30 April 2022, analyses the differences between the positive and negative list approaches, and discusses their implications for negotiation strategies and trade policies.

Disruptions to global value chains (GVCs) — caused by conflicts, natural disasters, and accidents that close transport routes — and that affect specific regions or sectors, are not unusual. However, in recent years and amid the Covid-19 pandemic, they have become more frequent and severe. High profile, sizeable, and repeated disruptions raise pressing questions: Is the breakdown in many GVCs a temporary glitch, or Read More

Geopolitical conflicts have increasingly been a driver of trade policy. We study the potential effects of global and persistent geopolitical conflicts on trade, technological innovation, and economic growth. In conventional trade models the welfare costs of such conflicts are modest. We build a multi-sector multi-region general equilibrium model with dynamic sector-specific knowledge diffusion, which magnifies welfare losses of Read More

In this paper, we estimated the standard (macro-economic) import equation over the period 1995-2021Q2, using an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD) calculated from input-output tables at country level, and compared the results with regressions using GDP. Initially introduced by Bussière (2013), this "synthetic" concept of IAD was perfected, inter alia, by the IMF (2016) and by us (2017), with Read More

This study describes trade margins (intensive and extensive) and establishes determinants of the mid-point export and import growth during the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic by relying on Kenya’s monthly customs transaction data (at 6-digit level of Harmonized System) for the period January 2006–June 2020. Exports fell during the two crises, of which the intensive margin was responsible for the Read More

Although a growing number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) include telecommunications provisions, the collection and systematization of information on telecommunications provisions in RTAs remain limited. This paper addresses this gap by mapping and reviewing the different types of provisions on telecommunications found in RTAs that have been notified to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

This study investigates how environmental policies impact trade and innovation in environmental goods. We make two major contributions to the economic debate. First, we extract a set of information from the WTO Environmental Database (EDB) through natural language processing techniques that could be useful for future research and policy analysis. Second, we use this data to test a set of economic hypotheses o Read More

This paper uses Chinese firm level data to detect the international propagation of adverse shocks triggered by the US hurricane season in 2005. We provide evidence that Chinese processing manufacturers with tight trade linkages to the United States reduced their intermediate imports from the United States between July and October 2005.

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has become an integral part of many companies' business strategy. A detailed analysis of 579 RTAs, including 305 agreements currently in force and notified to the WTO (as of December 2020), reveals that a limited but increasing number of RTAs, namely 65 agreements, refer explicitly to CSR. These CSR-related provisions are particularly heterogeneous in terms of location in the RTA, languag Read More

The Marrakesh Agreement establishing the WTO recognizes the need for positive efforts designed to ensure that developing countries and especially the least developed among them secure a share in the growth in international trade commensurate with the needs of their economic development.This article discusses how the WTO contributes to facilitating Africa’s integration into the WTO multilateral trading system. Read More

Based on the first comprehensive mapping of telecommunications provisions telecommunications in regional trade agreements (RTAs), this paper shows that telecommunications provisions in RTAs have evolved and expanded significantly over the years. While some provisions focus on information and communications technologies (ICT) infrastructure, policy and investment, other provisions address telecommunications Read More

Developments in trade finance in 2020 were largely driven by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Twelve years after the great financial crisis of 2008-09, the issue of trade finance re-emerged as a matter of urgency. While the current pandemic-related crisis did not have a financial cause, one of its results has been that many countries are experiencing difficulties in accessing trade credit. This is occurring notably in countri Read More

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a discussion among researchers and policy makers about changes to global value chains, both about expected changes and changes that should be promoted by government policies. In this paper we conduct an in-depth analysis of the reasons for changes in global value chains as a result of COVID-19 both from a positive angle, analysing expected changes in the Read More

On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the WTO, this paper re-estimates the impact of WTO accession on growth. Joining the multilateral trading system not only expands access to international markets but also requires commitment to domestic reforms. Tang and Wei (2009) showed that there is in fact a positive effect of WTO on growth also during the period of accession when these commitments are undertaken.

This paper charts the evolution and diversification of trade in knowledge that has taken place in the quarter-century since the WTO TRIPS Agreement came into force. Entirely new markets have come into being, potentially redefining the very character of 'trade'.

COVID-19, caused by SARS-Cov-2, was declared to be a pandemic by the World Health Organization on 11 March 2020. Since then, the issue of the relationship between patent protection and the development of and access to medical treatments and technologies – a longstanding and enduringly important public policy issue – has become central to the debate on the linkages between IP, innovation, access, and public h Read More

From its initial focus on minimizing waste generation, the circular economy has evolved into a broad-based approach to make resource use more sustainable. A big part of the appeal of a circular economy is the opportunities it creates not only for resource savings and better human health and environmental outcomes, but also for trade and economic diversification.

In order to ensure transparency and to keep abreast of trade policies in support of sustainability, the WTO Committee on Trade and Environment (CTE) mandated the WTO Secretariat to compile and collate all environment-related measures notified to WTO. The database also includes environment-related entries found in Trade Policy Reviews (TPRs).

Le concept d'assurance est fondé sur la mutualisation de risques futurs aléatoires moyennant le paiement en amont d'une contribution financière par le client (la prime d'assurance). Pour être effective, l'assurance suppose une confiance élevée de la part des clients dans la capacité des fournisseurs d'assurance (les compagnies d'assurance) à payer les dommages lorsqu'ils se matérialisent. Sinon, les clients ne payeraien Read More

A little over a decade has passed since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. Shortly after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank, an internal Secretariat Task Force was established by the WTO Director-General to monitor the trade-related developments associated with the crisis. Meeting in London in early 2009, the G20 Leaders mandated the WTO, together with other international bodies, to monitor an Read More

Are changes in services markets provoking reform, restrictions, or inertia? To address this question, we draw upon a new World Bank-WTO Services Trade Policy Database (STPD) to analyse the services trade policies of 68 economies in 23 subsectors across five broad areas—financial services, telecommunications, distribution, transportation and professional services, respectively.

Better information on how services policies vary across economies and sectors over time would improve the empirical analysis of their impact. This paper describes the Services Trade Policy Database (STPD), a joint initiative by the World Bank and the WTO Secretariat, which builds on a database developed by the World Bank nearly ten years ago and draws on a recent OECD database.

This paper is the first in the literature to examine the impact of natural disasters on trade in services. We measure the magnitude of natural disasters using two distinct sets of variables and quantify the effect of natural disasters on trade in services using a structural gravity model.

This document provides a technical description of the WTO Global Trade Model developed by the Center for Global Trade Analysis (GTAP) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). The model can be used to generate global trade projections and to assess the medium and long run effects of a wide range of global and national trade policies.

Aid for Trade supports developing and least-developed countries in building their trade capacity and in increasing their exports by turning market access opportunities into market presence. It does so by addressing four key areas: trade policy & regulations; economic infrastructure; building productive capacity; and trade-related adjustment.

Guided by a cost benefit analysis model and using a unique database of tariff bindings for all WTO countries over the 1996-2011 period, we show that WTO commitments affect members’ trade policy. More stringent bindings reduce the likelihood of responding to import shocks by raising tariffs and increase the likelihood of contingent measures. We argue that this reduces overall trade policy uncertainty. In a counterfactual scen Read More

The WTO Global Trade Model is employed to project the medium-run economic effects of a global trade conflict. The trade conflict scenario is based on recent estimates in the literature of the difference between cooperative and non-cooperative tariffs.

This paper compares the solution methods and baseline calibration of three different quantitative trade models (QTMs): computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, structural gravity (SG) models and models employing exact hat algebra (EHA). The different solution methods generate identical results on counterfactual experiments if baseline trade shares or baseline trade costs are identical.

Our analysis covers 230 PTAs of which 111 contain substantive provisions on investment. Over the past 60 years or so, States have created an extensive network of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) that govern and protect international investment. The number of BITs concluded annually continues to increase, although this rate has tapered off over the past decade.

Competition policy, today, is an essential element of the legal and institutional framework for the global economy. Whereas decades ago, anti-competitive practices tended to be viewed mainly as a domestic phenomenon, most facets of competition law enforcement now have an important international dimension. Examples include: the investigation and prosecution of price fixing and market sharing arrangements that often Read More

We exploit a decomposition of gross trade flows into their value added components to reassess the relationship between increased imports from China and manufacturing jobs in US local labour markets following the seminal paper of Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013, ADH).

Digital networks are an increasingly critical component of global trade. In 2017, the Global Review of Aid for Trade highlighted the importance of accessible and affordable connections for trade connectivity. Drawing extensively on information harvested in the Monitoring and Evaluation exercise in preparation for the Review, this paper analyses aid for trade for digital connectivity and e-commerce.

This paper illustrates how the work of the WTO's standing committees is fuelling regulatory cooperation between WTO members, and inspiring RTA negotiators.

This paper looks at the extent to which the shift in the lower value added production to countries in the following development "tier" is actually becoming a reality.

Competition agency guidelines, policy statements and related advocacy are an important vehicle for policy expression and the guidance of firms across the full spectrum of anti-competitive practices and market conduct.

Trade and technological change continually alter the workplace and labor-market outcomes, with consequences for economy-wide welfare and the distribution of real incomes.

This paper examines the evolution of national competition (antitrust) policies and enforcement approaches vis-à-vis intellectual property rights (IPRs) and associated anti-competitive practices in major jurisdictions over the past several decades. It focuses especially on the underlying process of economic learning that has, the authors suggest, driven relevant policy changes.

This paper reviews the different types of provisions explicitly addressing electronic commerce (e-commerce) in regional trade agreements (RTAs). The analysis covers the 275 RTAs currently in force and notified to the WTO as of May 2017.

Since the recovery from the great financial crisis in 2010, global real trade flows grew much slower than pre-crisis, in both absolute terms (growth rates) and relative terms (relative to GDP, from 2:1 in the great 1990's to 1:1 since 2012) A debate has arisen as to whether this global trade slowdown, and related falling trade-to-income elasticity, was structural or cyclical.

The frequency, severity and economic impact of natural disasters are growing. Import surges resulting from disaster-response efforts can highlight underlying structural failings in the border clearance regimes of disaster-affected countries.

Besides facilitating access to the world market, WTO accession negotiations entail a process of domestic reforms that are expected to improve the supply side of acceding economies. However, measuring the actual impact of accession remains an empirical debate.

There are essentially two types of plurilateral trade agreements (PAs) among WTO Members, n exclusive and an open variant. While the benefits of the former agreements are shared among participants only, the latter are implemented on an MFN-basis, thus profiting non-signatories as well. The most prominent examples are the Information Technology Agreement (1996) and the Fourth and Fifth Protocols under the GATS (19 Read More

Trade finance shortfalls now appear regularly. Does this matter for trade expansion and economic development in developing countries? Global trade finance has resumed following the 2009 global financial crisis. However, the pattern of recovery has been uneven across countries and categories of firms. The recovery has been robust for the main routes of trade and for large trading companies. By contrast, access to t Read More

The last 25 years have witnessed a rapid increase in regional trade agreements (RTAs). Although RTAs generally aim at lowering tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, an increasing number of trade agreements extend their scope to cover specific policy areas such as environmental protection and sustainable development. This paper establishes a comprehensive typology and quantitative analysis of environment-related provisions i Read More

Advances in information and communications technologies (ICTs) and new business models have widened opportunities for trade in digitized ideas, shaping global value chains and production networks in cultural or creative goods and services. However, much of this trade has eluded conventional categorization and new business models. In particular multinational firms have blurred the way international transactions c Read More

Even if traders adapt to technical regulations and standards in an export market, they still must prove compliance by undergoing conformity assessment procedures (CAPs), such as testing, inspection, or certification. Duplication, delays or discrimination in CAPs can significantly increase trade costs, and this risk is reflected in the growing importance of CAPs in WTO discussions and bilateral and regional free trade agreem Read More