One year of war in Ukraine

This note examines how the war in Ukraine has affected global trade. It looks at how exports from Russia and Ukraine have evolved over the past year. It then analyses how countries highly dependent on Russian or Ukrainian exports of agricultural and primary goods have responded to the crisis, and how prices and trade in goods greatly affected by the war have developed. These impacts reveal the repercussions of the war for developing economies and demonstrate the resilience of the multilateral trading system. This note highlights that a widespread push to reconsolidate global supply chains based on geopolitical considerations would come at a high cost. Reduced growth prospects could be particularly large for many developing countries, especially least-developed countries. Their opportunity costs of foregoing further multilateral liberalization and moving to geopolitical rivalry instead could amount to 11.3 per cent of real GDP – placing further strain on the fragile situation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.