Trade monitoring
Transparency — Why it Matters at Times of Crisis
For trade in goods and services to flow traders and governments need to know the rules. At no time is this more critical than at moments of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic. New trade measures are being taken by governments every day in response to COVID-19. If the different actors engaged in supply chains are not aware of these new requirements they can struggle to adapt to the new conditions thereby risking unnecessary disruptions. Transparency is precisely about allowing access to this information and more. It enables governments and traders to keep up to date in a rapidly evolving trade landscape and provides.
International Trade in Travel and Tourism Services
In this paper we investigate tourism-related policy approaches that WTO member countries adopted in the early weeks of the COVID-19 crisis. We highlight the need for stakeholders to coordinate their responses in order to mitigate the negative crisis effects and better prepare the sector for the future. In doing so we explore the economic impact of potential tourism scenarios underlining both the demand and supply side effects of the crisis.
Trade and Environment
In order to ensure transparency and to keep abreast of trade policies in support of sustainability the WTO Committee on Trade and Environment (CTE) mandated the WTO Secretariat to compile and collate all environment-related measures notified to WTO. The database also includes environment-related entries found in Trade Policy Reviews (TPRs).
Forecasting Trade
This paper develops a set of time series models to provide short-term forecasts (6 to 18 months ahead) of international trade both at the global level and for selected regions. Our results compare favourably to other forecasts notably by the International Monetary Fund as measured by standard evaluation measures such as the root mean square forecast error. In comparison to other models our approach offers several methodological advantages inter alia a focus on import growth as the core variable the avoidance of certain difficulties affecting the performance of structural models the selection of variables and lags on the basis of theoretical considerations and empirical testing as well as a full documentation of the modelling process.
Lessons from the First Two Decades of Trade Policy Reviews in the Americas
The Trade Policy Reviews conducted in the Western Hemisphere over 1989-2009 contain a wealth of information that puts in clear evidence the considerable improvements achieved in most American countries during the first two decades of operation of the Trade Policy Review Mechanism. Those Reviews show that trade liberalization came hand-in-hand with internal reforms and was generally of an autonomous nature and an intrinsic component of improved economic management. Trade liberalization slowed down during the second decade under review with tariffs having come down mostly during the earlier years. The use of non-tariff barriers also fell over time although at a slow pace in some of the smallest Members which found it difficult to implement the more complex trade policy instrument applied by larger countries. Export and other government assistance schemes proliferated throughout the continent but were often characterized by a lack of unity in the criteria used to assign and apply them. The review period also witnessed enormous changes in the services sectors where reforms usually proved more complex than in the goods area. The multilateral and other international trade agreements contributed to the stability of trade policies and the general rejection of protectionism although backtracking did occur in a number of cases. Because the commitments made during the Uruguay Round negotiation now fall short of the more liberal trade regimes that came to be over the review period most Members in the Americas could presently raise trade and investment barriers without violating multilateral rules. Thus the pressing need to conclude the Doha Development Agenda in order to lock in the considerable trade policy liberalization achieved during past years and to strengthen the multilateral trading system.
Trade in Medical Goods in the Context of Tackling COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought considerable attention to trade in medical products and specifically trade in products for prevention testing and treatment. This study provides a comprehensive overview of trade and tariffs imposed on medical goods in general many of which appear to be in severe shortage as a result of the current crisis. The purpose of this note is to provide factual information on how these goods are traded globally.
Developing and Delivering COVID-19 Vaccines Around the World
The WTO Secretariat has published a new information note on trade-related issues for COVID-19 vaccine production manufacturing and deployment. The note entitled “Developing and delivering COVID-19 vaccines around the world” explores how trade policy can play its part in ensuring the rapid roll-out of vaccines against COVID-19.
Developing & Delivering COVID-19 Vaccines Around the World
The WTO Secretariat has published a new information note on trade-related issues for COVID-19 vaccine production manufacturing and deployment. The note entitled “Developing and delivering COVID-19 vaccines around the world” explores how trade policy can play its part in ensuring the rapid roll-out of vaccines against COVID-19.
Trade Policies Supporting Women’s Economic Empowerment
This paper looks at the various trade policies WTO Members have put into place to foster women’s economic empowerment. The analysis below is based on the information provided by WTO Members as part of their Trade Policy Review (TPRs) process from 2014 to 2018. Reports from the WTO Secretariat governments as well as the question and answer sessions were examined for the purpose of this paper.
The Development of Trade Policies in the Asia and Pacific Region Over the Past 30 Years Since 1989
This paper reviews the main developments of trade and related policies and measures in the Asia and Pacific region during the 30 years since establishment in 1989 of the Trade Policy Review Mechanism (TPRM). The objectives of the TPRM include facilitating the smooth functioning of the multilateral trading system by enhancing the transparency of WTO Members' trade policies.
Evolution of Asia's Outward-Looking Economic Policies
This Working Paper contains some observations concerning the evolution of trade and trade-related policies in the Asia-Pacific region since the establishment in 1989 of the Trade Policy Review Mechanism (TPRM) whose goal is to improve the transparency of these policies. It also draws some lessons from the Reviews undertaken. In particular the Paper examines how reforms either unilateral or in connection with bilateral regional or multilateral trade agreements can be greatly facilitated by transparency including cost-benefit (C-B) analyses of policies and measures that take full account not just of the interests of domestic producers but also those of other groups including exporters and domestic consumers. While high quality transparency is not cheap the costs of achieving it pale in comparison with the financial assistance involved and efficiency losses associated with such assistance. Trade Policy Reviews (TPRs) throw light not only on measures that appear to contravene WTO rules although that is not their purpose; more importantly they identify measures not seemingly covered by WTO rules which can nonetheless have economic effects equivalent to measures that are subject to these rules. One of the main lessons from these TPRs is that impediments to economic development are largely homegrown. Consequently unilateral structural reform of which liberalization of both trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) has been an integral part is of paramount importance. By fostering transparency particularly evaluating the effectiveness of policies and measures in achieving their objectives and their overall impacts (intended or unintended) on the economy the TPRM can be a catalyst for unilateral reform including liberalization of trade and FDI. Although the latter has received added impetus from multilateral liberalization under the auspices of the GATT/WTO the stalling of negotiations in connection with the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) should not preclude further unilateral liberalization. By contrast the benefits of preferential trade agreements are far from obvious notwithstanding their proliferation during the past decade throughout the Asia-Pacific region here few governments have subjected these agreements to rigorous cost-benefit analysis. Economies in the Asia-Pacific region especially East Asia have been much more successful than those in other regions in achieving sustained fast growth and thereby raising living standards and reducing poverty. This success can be attributed not so much to transparency which is largely lacking but to inter alia their broad outward-looking development strategy. This strategy has involved in particular an increasingly high degree of integration into the global economy with heavy reliance on growth of manufactured exports high rates of national saving to finance high rates of domestic investment including public investment in physical and social infrastructure (notably education and health) supplemented by FDI (as well as maintenance of macroeconomic stability reliance on a functioning market system to allocate resources and committed capable and credible governments). However this development strategy has left growth very heavily dependent on domestic investment and exports which dropped sharply in the wake of the global financial crisis that erupted in 2008. This and resulting current account imbalances and consequent trade tension has prompted a rethink in a number of East Asian economies of their development strategies. As a consequence China Chinese Taipei Korea and Malaysia for example are now attempting to wean their economies off investment and exports and give freer rein to domestic consumption. As circumstances (including comparative advantage) change and global resources become increasingly scarce policies need to be continually reviewed in order to ensure that second-best measures are replaced by more cost-effectiveness ones. As improved productivity is the key to sustained development in the long run policies need to be adapted to ensure that they facilitate rather than inhibit the efficient re-allocation of resources by markets in accordance with evolving comparative advantage. Reform needs to be ongoing therefore. Transparency builds support for and thus paves the way for such reform.
Opening a Pandora’s Box
Economic projections for the world economy particularly in relation to the construction of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) baselines are generally rather conservative and take scant account of the wide range of possible evolutions authorized by the underlying economic mechanisms considered. Against this background we adopt an ‘open mind’ to the projection of world trade trajectories. Taking a 2035 horizon we examine how world trade patterns will be shaped by the changing comparative advantages demand and capabilities of different regions. We combine a convergence model fitting three production factors (capital labor and energy) and two factor-specific productivities alongside a dynamic CGE model of the world economy calibrated to Economic projections for the world economy particularly in relation to the construction of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) baselines are generally rather conservative and take scant account of the wide range of possible evolutions authorized by the underlying economic mechanisms considered. Against this background we adopt an ‘open mind’ to the projection of world trade trajectories. Taking a 2035 horizon we examine how world trade patterns will be shaped by the changing comparative advantages demand and capabilities of different regions. We combine a convergence model fitting three production factors (capital labor and energy) and two factor-specific productivities alongside a dynamic CGE model of the world economy calibrated to reproduce observed elasticity of trade to income. Each scenario involves three steps. First we project growth at country level based on factor accumulation educational attainment and efficiency gains and discuss uncertainties related to our main drivers. Second we impose this framework (demographics gross domestic product saving rates factors and current account trajectories) on the CGE baseline. Third we implement trade policy scenarios (tariffs as well as non-tariff measures in goods and services) in order to get factor allocation across sectors from the model as well as demand and trade patterns. We show that the impact of changing baselines is greater than the impact of a policy shock on the order of magnitude of changes in world trade patterns which points to the need for care when designing CGE baselines. observed elasticity of trade to income. Each scenario involves three steps.