Economic research and trade policy analysis

The working party on the accession of Russia was the biggest and longest in WTO accession history. A big power that decides to join an international organisation even if this is the WTO cannot avoid political burdens. No big country can stay apart from world politics. The WTO accession process is tough demanding and complex with no clear rules. This raises questions about length fairness and lack of procedural clarity. Yet it is risky to stay outside the rules-based multilateral trading system. To navigate the WTO accession process upfront it is critical to define a negotiating strategy and plan the end-game well in advance – a process that requires mobilisation of all negotiating resources concentration and focus. Domestically the challenge for the acceding government is to state a clear rationale for accession demonstrate that there will be real benefits from accession or at a minimum that there will be no negative consequences and define red lines to be defended. Negotiating positions should be aligned with requirements for domestic reform. Strong and consistent political will and leadership with support from the parliamentary majority are necessary to conclude any accession negotiations. WTO accession may in itself play neither a negative nor a positive role for domestic economic developments but by becoming a member a country will obtain benefits in the medium and long term through the creation of better terms for its trade within the WTO itself. In this chapter Russia’s practical experience of its accession negotiation the obstacles encountered its assessment of the benefits of accession including lessons learned during the process are described.

Services have become the most dynamic sector of world trade – but in ways that are not always recognized or understood. Just as services have come to dominate many national economies they are playing a bigger role in the global economy as well. Many factors are driving this – including consumption liberalization and investment – but the game-changer is technology. Services that were once difficult to trade because they could only be delivered in person are becoming far easier to trade because they can be delivered digitally. The 2019 World Trade Report explores this globalization of services – why it is happening how it is impacting economies and where new policy approaches are needed.

El comercio internacional es parte esencial del proceso de globalización. Durante muchos años los gobiernos de la mayor parte de los países han abierto cada vez más sus economías al comercio internacional ya sea a través del sistema multilateral de comercio de la intensificación de la cooperación regional o en el marco de programas internos de reforma. En términos más generales el comercio y la globalización han reportado beneficios ingentes a muchos países y ciudadanos. El comercio ha permitido a muchas naciones obtener los beneficios de la especialización y hacer economías para producir a una escala más eficiente. Ha incrementado la productividad impulsado la difusión del conocimiento y de nuevas tecnologías y aumentado la posibilidad de elección de los consumidores. Pero la opción de una mayor integración en la economía mundial no siempre ha gozado de popularidad y los beneficios del comercio y de la globalización no siempre han llegado a todos los sectores de la sociedad. El escepticismo sobre el comercio es cada vez mayor en determinados ámbitos y la finalidad del tema central del Informe sobre el Comercio Mundial de este año titulado “El comercio en un mundo en proceso de globalización” es recordar lo que sabemos sobre los beneficios del comercio internacional y los retos que plantea un nivel mayor de integración.

Los acuerdos comerciales definen las normas para la dirección de la política comercial. Esas normas deben establecer un equilibrio entre compromisos y flexibilidad. En tanto que una excesiva flexibilidad puede menoscabar el valor de los compromisos un margen de flexibilidad demasiado estrecho puede hacer que las normas sean políticamente insostenibles. Esta tensión entre compromisos creíbles y flexibilidad está siempre latente en las negociaciones comerciales. Por ejemplo la cuestión de un “mecanismo de salvaguardia especial” (la medida en que se autorizaría a los países en desarrollo a proteger a los agricultores frente al aumento brusco de las importaciones) fue decisiva en las deliberaciones de la minirreunión ministerial de julio de 2008 en la que se trató de acordar las modalidades de negociación -o un proyecto definitivo- para la agricultura y el acceso a los mercados para los productos no agrícolas (AMNA).

Despite broad public concern with the effect of firms’ offshoring behaviour on economic insecurity there is scant research. Most analysis over the past 20 years – widely acknowledged as a period of rapid globalization – has focused on the impact of offshoring on workers depending on whether they are “skilled” or “unskilled”. The main research question has been the relative contribution of trade versus technological change to the rise in wage inequality in many industrialized countries. In this chapter we seek to broaden our understanding of the effect of offshoring on economic insecurity and also to connect the question of economic insecurity to national labour market institutions and to workers’ perceptions of globalization. We shift the focus to the effect of offshoring on the labour share of income rather than on its relative impact on high- and low-skilled workers. The labour share (or one minus the capital share) is affected by firm-level changes in productivity labour demand and the distribution of value added. It is useful to capture profits and wages in the measure of economic security since offshoring is driven by the corporations’ pursuit of higher profits and greater flexibility. Moreover the labour share comprises workers’ earnings and employment and analysis of the impact of offshoring on economic insecurity should include both.

Over the last few decades services have become the backbone of the global economy and the most dynamic component of international trade. Services are increasingly easier to trade thanks in large part to digitalization. From online education to virtual law firms technology is penetrating all services sectors transforming services traditionally delivered face-to-face into remotely tradable services. Trade long dominated by the exchange of goods increasingly involves services transforming the global economy in the process.

En la era digital son cada vez más los Gobiernos que han adoptado políticas encaminadas a impulsar el crecimiento por medio de la innovación y la modernización tecnológica. Las repercusiones económicas a nivel nacional asociadas a la pandemia de COVID-19 están llevando a los países a fortalecer esas políticas. En el presente informe se examinan esas tendencias y el papel que desempeñan el comercio y la OMC en este contexto. Se muestra asimismo que la cooperación internacional contribuye de manera significativa a que los países alcancen esos objetivos con mayor eficacia minimizando al mismo tiempo los efectos indirectos negativos de las políticas nacionales.

The issue of finance is an integral one in the supply chain context given that supply chains embody flows of information capital goods and labour. The concept of credit chains reviewed here directly addresses this. The supply chain concept has traditionally tended to emphasise the tangible/material dimensions of the chain. As a result the financial dimension had been relatively neglected in the literature. This changed with the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. As both a potential aggravator and victim of the crisis trade finance and supply chains became the subject of a new and rapidly growing body of literature. Previously the subject had been largely addressed in the context of operations research and economic development. We review findings from all research areas in the literature and observe significant merit in the credit chain concept of supply chain financial flows. Migration of the concept to other areas of supply chain research could potentially address financial dimensions of supply chains that are otherwise underemphasised in the literature.

Lors de la quatrième Conférence ministérielle de l’Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) organisée à Doha en novembre 2001 les Ministres ont engagé un large éventail de négociations commerciales multilatérales et adopté un programme de travail. Ce mandat - appelé parfois Programme de Doha pour le développement - témoigne de leur volonté commune de veiller à ce que le système commercial soit pertinent et adapté aux besoins des pays en développement. Les négociations et le programme de travail couvrent entre autres l’accès aux marchés des produits manufacturés l’agriculture et les services certaines règles (mesures antidumping subventions et mesures compensatoires accords régionaux) le commerce et l’environnement les droits de propriété intellectuelle qui touchent au commerce l’interaction du commerce et de la politique de la concurrence la transparence des marchés publics la facilitation des échanges et le règlement des différends. Les pays en développement sont pour beaucoup dans l’inscription à l’ordre du jour de questions telles que le commerce et le transfert de technologie; le commerce la dette et les finances; les petites économies; les questions de mise en oeuvre (s’agissant en particulier des dossiers en suspens depuis le Cycle d’Uruguay) ou le traitement spécial et différencié. Les points de vue divergent encore sur les modalités – et parfois l’opportunité – de l’inclusion de toutes ces questions dans les négociations dont la conclusion est prévue pour la fin de 2004.