Development and building trade capacity
Fundamental economic factors affecting international trade
The previous section has shown that the future of trade and economic growth depends on a range of factors. Predictions may change depending on how each of these factors develops. This section discusses how the fundamental economic factors shaping the future of international trade – namely demography investment technology energy and other natural resources transportation costs and the institutional framework – are likely to evolve in the coming years.
Openness to trade and informality
Globalization and the opening of markets in developing economies to trade is believed to have affected informal employment in these countries. This chapter summarizes the theoretical arguments for such a link and presents the relevant empirical evidence. In particular it asks the questions: What roles do trade reforms and trade expansion play in explaining changes in the share of informal employment? How does trade opening affect the relative wage of informal compared to formal workers? While the long-term allocative effects of trade opening have been extensively studied by trade economists since at least the eighteenth century the short- and medium-term impact of trade reforms on the composition of employment the wage structure and unemployment only started to attract the attention of researchers in the early 1990s (Agénor 1995). This chapter contains two parts. First a summary of theoretical approaches concerning the impact of trade on informality is provided. Second empirical studies aimed at validating different theoretical hypotheses are discussed.
Is Tunisian Trade Policy Pro-poor?
Trade liberalization policies affect the domestic economy through their impact on prices of goods and services. Consequently these policies also can affect average productivity and lead to industrial restructuring. The main goal of this research is to estimate the distributional effects of trade policy at the micro level using household survey data and to determine whether trade liberalization affected different groups of poor people differently. To our knowledge this question has not yet been addressed for Tunisia.
Résumé analytique
Le Rapport sur le commerce mondial 2013 analyse les tendances probables du commerce mondial et la manière dont les facteurs économiques sociaux et politiques présents et futurs pourraient influer sur ces tendances. Les relations ne sont pas unidirectionnelles dès lors que le commerce est à la fois la cause et l’effet de certaines évolutions.
Las cadenas de valor mundiales en la era de Internet: ¿qué oportunidades hay para África?
En el presente capítulo se analizan los efectos de Internet en las cadenas de valor mundiales (CVM) de África. En concreto analizamos qué repercusión tiene el uso de Internet en la participación progresiva y regresiva de los países africanos en las CVM. Nuestras estimaciones se basan en datos por países de la base de datos EORA de la Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre Comercio y Desarrollo (UNCTAD) sobre las CVM y en datos de empresas procedentes de la Encuesta de Empresas del Banco Mundial. Lo que queremos es verificar si el uso de Internet facilita la participación de los países y las empresas de África en las CVM. Nuestros resultados sugieren que el uso de Internet y la infraestructura de Internet son factores más importantes para la participación progresiva de las empresas y países africanos en las CVM. Nuestra conclusión es que los resultados empíricos muestran que el uso de Internet incrementa la participación en las CVM en África. Los países y empresas africanos deben mejorar la infraestructura de Internet si quieren asegurar la mejor integración posible en las CVM.
The economic dimension of trade in the SDGs
Trade can play an important role in boosting economic growth and supporting poverty reduction. The increased market access opportunities it offers can help countries create jobs improve incomes and attract investments. The SDGs put significant emphasis on the role that trade plays in promoting sustainable development and recognize the contribution that the WTO can make to the 2030 Agenda.
Trade, value chains and labor markets in advanced economies
Trade is a major source of employment. Nevertheless trade has recently been caught in the crossfire in discussions around the decline of manufacturing employment and the polarization of labor markets in advanced economies. In this chapter we examine what the academic literature has to say on the relationship between trade and labor markets with a specific focus on studies with a value chain perspective. We find that trade has only modest effects on aggregate employment and is unlikely to have been a major contributor to the decline of manufacturing. However the effects vary considerably across regions and individuals with different skill levels. This implies that policy has a central role to play in making sure that the gains from trade are shared evenly. Our findings highlight that a value chain perspective is important for assessing the impact of trade on labor markets. The emergence of value chains has strengthened linkages between sectors magnified trade’s impact on skill demand and requires novel trade statistics. Ignoring this leads to a biased view of trade and overestimates its role in the decline of manufacturing employment.
El comercio electrónico en África: cuestiones en juego y desafíos
En el presente capítulo se analiza el potencial del comercio electrónico en África. El rápido crecimiento de Internet y de la telefonía móvil junto con la adopción de innovaciones móviles que han impulsado en gran medida la inclusión financiera y fomentado el uso de los medios de pago electrónicos han sentado una sólida base para el desarrollo del comercio electrónico en el continente. Por otro lado la tasa de penetración bancaria (que sigue siendo baja) las deficiencias en las leyes y reglamentos por los que se rige el sector y su falta de armonización transfronteriza limitan el desarrollo del comercio electrónico en África. La reducción de la ciberdelincuencia el aumento de la participación en el sector financiero y el fortalecimiento del marco jurídico son indispensables para promover el comercio electrónico.
Are digital advances and inclusive growth compatible goals? Implications for trade policy in developing countries
Recent years have seen policymakers give increasing attention to two significant widespread phenomena: rising inequality (the result of uneven access to productive employment) and the quickening pace of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) or “digital era”. This chapter explores the concept of inequality and why it is important to promote more inclusive growth especially in developing countries. It also offers insights into how digital advances can serve to accelerate inclusive growth provided countries have well-informed policies regulations and institutions to drive the necessary changes. It is evident from a crosssection of the literature and the initial results from a study on the effects of digital advances on inclusive growth in Africa that digitalization and inclusive growth are ideologically compatible. The areas requiring special attention by policymakers in developing countries include: (i) the problem of data inadequacy; (ii) uneven and costly digital connectivity; and (iii) education systems that are not preparing entrepreneurs for in-demand jobs or for the workplace of the future. Two of the prerequisites for leveraging digital technologies in order to drive more inclusive growth are an effective regulatory framework and a commercial environment that is both trade- and investment-friendly.
L’économie créative numérique et le commerce : options stratégiques pour les pays en développement
Le secteur créatif est une source importante de croissance dans l’économie mondiale et le commerce des produits et services créatifs numériques a fortement augmenté ces dernières années en particulier pendant la pandémie de COVID-19. Le contenu numérique remplace les biens physiques par exemple dans les segments de la musique des livres et des jeux. Les agrégateurs numériques comme Amazon Apple Netflix Spotify TikTok et YouTube ont alimenté une croissance rapide et diversifié les recettes en mettant l’accent sur la diffusion en continu la publicité et la monétisation des données. Les recettes liées aux droits d’auteur sont également en hausse et les perceptions de redevances liées au numérique constituent le segment qui connaît la croissance la plus rapide. La participation des pays en développement au secteur semble augmenter bien que l’on dispose de peu de données sur la question. Pour tirer parti des avantages potentiels de l’économie créative numérique les pays en développement doivent soutenir une transformation : le modèle classique du créateur indépendant exerçant une activité à faible valeur ajoutée doit faire place à une approche de collaboration stratégique qui permet de relever les niveaux d’entrepreneuriat créatif et numérique. À cette fin il convient de mettre en place un cadre juridique et institutionnel plus solide pour améliorer l’exploitation des droits d’auteur et les monétiser de soutenir financièrement la commercialisation des activités créatives d’amener les pouvoirs publics à participer au soutien aux entreprises (qui prend la forme entre autres d’activités de formation d’incubateurs de laboratoires d’innovation d’incubateurs de marché et de programmes de développement de groupements et de marchés) de créer des institutions pouvant représenter les intérêts des travailleurs et des entreprises du secteur créatif et d’harmoniser les politiques publiques concernant le secteur.
Resumen
El Informe sobre el Comercio Mundial 2013 examina las tendencias que probablemente marcarán el comercio mundial y el modo en que podrían influir los factores económicos sociales y políticos actuales y futuros en dichas tendencias. No se trata de relaciones unidireccionales ya que el comercio es a un tiempo causa y efecto de determinados fenómenos.
Constraints faced by the poor
Analysis of the role of trade in contributing to poverty reduction needs to go beyond its impact on economic growth. As discussed in the preceding chapter economic growth will remain the key driver of poverty reduction globally and trade will continue to be a critical driver of growth. Nevertheless in the areas in which extreme poverty is now concentrated — South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa — with predicted growth more than 370 million people in these regions are likely to remain extremely poor in 2030 amounting to around 4.5 percent of the global population. Strikingly 80 percent of these extreme poor will be in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Integrating small and medium-sized enterprises into global trade flows: The case of China
In China the term “small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)” refers to “different forms of enterprises under different ownerships that are established within the territory of the People’s Republic of China that meet the social needs and create more job opportunities and comply with the industrial policies of the State”. This definition is rather more complex than that in other countries where the definition of SMEs tends to be based purely on their size. It is nevertheless the case that in China also SMEs tend to be enterprises which have fewer employers lower sales volume and lower gross assets. Most Chinese enterprises are SMEs. Indeed they account for more than 98 per cent of industry and contribute to 60 per cent of China’s GDP 75 per cent of its industrial value-added output and 50 per cent of its revenue (as of June 2012). Chinese SMEs also provide for 75 per cent of China’s urban employment opportunities and absorb more than 50 per cent of the workers laid off from the state-owned enterprises. They employ more than 70 per cent of the new entrants to the labour market (Jianjun 2006). Hence Chinese SMEs play an important role in China’s economic development due to their contribution to GDP and the employment they create as well as their vigorous creative ability.
Les nouvelles règles sur le commerce numérique en Amérique latine : les accords commerciaux régionaux
Bien que les progrès technologiques récents aient été favorables à l’essor du commerce numérique cette croissance s’est produite en l’absence de règles claires et précises. Cette lacune est devenue problématique pour les pays d’Amérique latine. Des accords régionaux et bilatéraux plus complexes ont fait leur apparition face à l’impasse dans laquelle se trouve le régime commercial multilatéral. L’élaboration d’une réglementation du commerce numérique soulève de nombreuses questions. Dans le présent chapitre nous examinons les nouvelles règles sur le commerce numérique qui figurent dans les accords commerciaux régionaux (ACR) récemment négociés par les économies d’Amérique latine. Nous nous sommes particulièrement attachés dans ce cadre à comparer l’Accord de partenariat transpacifique global et progressiste (PTPGP) et l’Accord Canada–États-Unis–Mexique (ACEUM) – les deux ACR les plus avancés concernant ces questions.
Aid for Trade
Launched during the 2005 WTO Ministerial Conference which was held in Hong Kong China the WTO-led Aid for Trade initiative aims to help developing countries particularly LDCs build the supply-side capacity and trade-related infrastructure that they need to implement and benefit from WTO agreements and more broadly to expand their trade. The Aid for Trade Global Review which usually takes place biennially provides a platform to examine how developing countries and in particular LDCs can better utilize market access opportunities through targeted Aid for Trade; how this aid is assisting their integration into the global economy; how development partners are helping in this process; and above all the effectiveness of this support.
Introduction and Overview
This volume the work of more than twenty authors grew out of the Fourth China Round Table and the WTO’s Tenth Ministerial Conference two seminal events held back-to-back in Nairobi Kenya in December 2015. The work presented here provides comprehensive substantive insights of the African trade policy and development context in which these two meetings took place.