Anti-dumping, subsidies, safeguards
The trade situation in 2008-09
Signs of a sharp deterioration in the global economy were evident in the second half of 2008 and the first few months of 2009 as world trade flows sagged and production slumped first in developed economies and then in developing countries. Although world trade grew by 2 per cent in volume terms over the course of 2008 it tapered off in the last six months of the year and was well down on the 6 per cent volume increase posted in 2007. World output measured by real gross domestic product (GDP) also slowed appreciably falling to 1.7 per cent in 2008 from 3.5 per cent a year earlier.
Foreword
The World Trade Report 2006 is the fourth in a series launched in 2002. As in previous years the present Report has taken up a current issue in trade policy. This year we have looked at subsidies. The contribution we hope to make with these Reports is to aid understanding of complex trade policy issues facing governments. This is not intended primarily as a prescriptive Report but rather as an invitation to deeper reflection and it is aimed not just at policy-makers but also the public they represent and the individuals and organizations that actively seek to influence government policies. In addition to the core topic the Report also takes a brief look at recent developments in trade and discusses some salient features of recent trade developments or a particular aspect of trade. This year the Report looks briefly at trade in textiles and clothing flows of international receipts and payments of royalties and license fees trends in the trade of least-developed countries and the impact of natural disasters and terrorist acts on international trade flows.
Subsidies and the WTO
We have discussed the economic arguments for and against different kinds of subsidization earlier in the Report. Economic analysis tells us that market failures of various kinds can sometimes be addressed efficiently with subsidies. It also tells us that subsidies can distort trade flows if they give an artificial competitive advantage to exporters or import-competing industries. Whether a subsidy is viewed as a desirable intervention for correcting a market failure or as an undesirable trade distortion depends sometimes upon who is making the judgement. But economic analysis ought to be able to help both in determining the desirability of an intervention from a welfare perspective and in assessing the merits of alternative forms of intervention. Governments may however decide to grant certain kinds of subsidies that have little to do with efficiency considerations and in such cases economic analysis based on a simple welfare analysis may be of limited use. Also in these cases the analysis is probably most helpful in ensuring that policy-makers are aware of the costs of pursuing particular objectives and of alternative lesser-cost ways of doing so. We also know that judgements about what to subsidize by how much and for how long are complex technical questions on which governments frequently lack adequate information.
Tendencias recientes en el comercio internacional
En 2005 la economía mundial creció el 33 por ciento menos que en 2004 pero ligeramente por encima del promedio del último decenio. El crecimiento económico siguió siendo fuerte en la mayoría de las regiones aunque no tan intenso como el año anterior. Sólo la economía europea siguió registrando un bajo crecimiento del PIB menos de la mitad del registrado en América del Norte. A diferencia de Europa en el Japón se experimentó un fortalecimiento de la actividad económica. Debido a la disminución del crecimiento económico a escala mundial y a la evolución del mercado del petróleo el crecimiento del comercio de mercancías -al igual que el del PIB- se desaceleró en términos reales aunque siguió siendo superior al promedio del último decenio.
Résumé analytique
Le Rapport sur le commerce mondial 2006 débute par un résumé succinct des principales tendances du commerce international établi sur la base du rapport publié par le Secrétariat en avril. Viennent ensuite de brèves observations analytiques sur certaines questions commerciales d’actualité qui concernent cette année l’évolution récente du commerce des textiles et des vêtements l’évolution des paiements internationaux au titre des redevances et des droits de licence l’évolution du commerce des pays les moins avancés et les effets des catastrophes naturelles et des actes de terrorisme sur les courants d’échanges internationaux. Le Rapport 2006 a pour thème central les subventions et en particulier la façon dont elles sont définies ce que la théorie économique peut nous apprendre à leur sujet les raisons pour lesquelles les pouvoirs publics y ont recours les principaux secteurs dans lesquels elles sont accordées et le rôle de l’Accord sur l’OMC dans leur réglementation dans le cadre du commerce international.
Gathering Industry Information and Preparing Questionnaires
As soon as the anti-dumping investigation has been formally initiated the investigating authorities should immediately begin the process of collecting the additional industry data that will be necessary to thoroughly evaluate allegations of material injury threat of material injury and the causal link between alleged injury and the dumped imports. The ability of the investigating authorities to properly analyze injury and causal issues and thus the likelihood of avoiding or withstanding any dispute settlement challenges to the definitive injury determination will depend to a significant extent on the quality of the information gathered in the investigation process.